What Wave?
By Morley Winograd
The Democratic
victory in the special
election in Pennsylvania
12 might not be the
upset that many in
Washington believe it to
be. That’s because, as
we have been saying in
this space for the past
year, 2010 is not 1994
and the chances of a
Republican wave building
off shore are far lower
now than they were then.
The country's
demographics have
shifted dramatically in
the intervening years;
the Republican brand is
much more tarnished than
it was in the 90s; and
Democratic governing
successes are gradually
being recognized by the
electorate.
The United States is a
much different country
demographically than
it was in 1994. A decade
and a half ago, over
three quarters of
Americans were white.
That number has dropped
to just over 60% now and
is on the way to falling
below 50% by the
midcentury. In
particular, the
percentage of Latinos in
the U.S. population has
nearly doubled (from
about 9% to 16%) over
the same period. In
addition, half of a new
generation—Millennials
(born 1982-2003), the
largest and most diverse
generation in American
history—has joined the
electorate.
All of these changes
have worked to the
advantage of the
Democratic Party and are
should continue to do so
in the future. In NDN’s
February survey of the
21st century American
electorate, Millennials
identified as Democrats
over Republicans by a
2:1 margin (42% vs. 21%)
and non-Caucasians did
so by over 4:1 (57% vs.
14%). Women also
strongly identified as
Democrats (44% vs. 24%
Republicans). By the
way, the other half of
the Millennial
Generation, all those
now under 18, already
live in a world where
whites are in the
minority, promising an
even larger Democratic
edge in the future.
At least in part as a
result of these major
demographic changes, the
Democratic Party now
holds a clear lead among
voters in party
identification,
something it did not
have in 1994. In the
most recent
Pew national survey
released earlier this
week, the Democrats
enjoy a nine-percentage
edge over the
Republicans in party ID
(45% vs. 36%).In 1994,
the two parties were
tied at 44% each and in
1995, the year after the
GOP won control of
Congress, more Americans
identified with or
leaned to the Republican
Party than the Democrats
(46% vs. 43%).
Moreover, while it is
true that attitudes
toward the Democratic
Party have declined
during 2010, contrary to
1994 the Republican
Party is not seen as a
viable alternative by
most voters. In 1994
favorable ratings of the
Democratic Party fell in
Pew’s surveys from 61%
when Bill Clinton was
elected president in
1992 to 50% by the time
of the midterm election.
In that same time
period, positive
perceptions of the
Republican Party
increased dramatically
from 46% to 67%. While
Pew’s March, 2010
survey showed Democrats
with only a 40%
favorable rating, down
from 57% in the fall of
2008, positive attitudes
toward the GOP also
declined since President
Barack Obama’s election
from 40% to 37%, still
leaving the Democrats
with a slight advantage.
These demographic
changes and attitudinal
configurations have put
the Democratic Party in
a stronger position now
than in 1994 to hold off
a possible Republican
wave. Furthermore, as
they have enacted major
portions of the Obama
agenda, Congressional
Democrats have improved
their standing in
comparison to
Republicans on the
generic ballot since
earlier this year. All
of the public surveys
conducted during the
past week show the
Democrats with at least
a modest lead. Over the
last few months there
has been a net shift of
six-points toward the
Democratic Party.
|
|
March/April
Democratic
Preference |
March/April
Republican
Preference |
May
Democratic
Preference |
May
Republican
Preference |
|
Gallup |
44% |
48% |
47% |
46% |
|
CNN |
45% |
49% |
47% |
46% |
|
Quinnipiac |
39% |
44% |
42% |
36% |
|
Average |
43% |
47% |
45% |
43% |
An examination of a few key
findings from some
recent polls shows why
that shift has occurred.
First, while voters do
not yet believe that
America has returned yet
to prosperity, there is
a clear perception of
progress. In the
Quinnipiac survey,
the number believing
that the nation’s
economy is getting
better rose from 19% in
April 2009 and 28% last
December to 32% now. The
belief that the economy
is worsening is down
from 32% to 24% over the
same period. President
Obama is getting some of
the credit for the
perceived improvement in
the economy. His
approval score for
handling the economy is
up from 39% in March
2010 to 44% currently.
More specifically, the
percentage approving of
President Obama’s
performance in creating
jobs has risen from a
low of 34% last January
to 40% in May.
Second, after a year of
rancor, voters are
increasingly positive
about the Democratic
health care reform plan
that passed Congress and
was signed by the
president in March.
According to a recent
CBS News poll,
approval of the plan
rose from only 32% in
early March to 43% in
May.
As a result, the
president’s approval
rating for handling
health care in the
Quinnipiac poll has
risen from a low of 35%
in January and February
to 45% now.
As proof that nothing
succeeds like success,
the perception of an
improving economy and
the increasingly
positive reactions to
the newly enacted health
care reform law have led
to the most favorable
job approval scores for
both the president and
congressional Democrats
this year. For most of
2010, in the Quinnipiac
poll, a slightly greater
percentage of voters
disapproved than
approved of the way
President Obama was
handling his job. But in
May, for the first time
since early February the
president’s approval
score was in positive
ground (48% approve vs.
43% disapprove). Over
the same time frame, the
job performance approval
of congressional
Democrats has gone up
from 28% to 34%. By
contrast, the approval
score for congressional
Republicans is down from
a high of 34% in March
to only 26% in May.
As a result, the
forecast of another
Democratic election
disaster like that of
1994 seems premature and
unlikely in today’s
changed demographic and
political environment.
Those expecting a wave
may well be left
standing on the shore
vainly waiting for a
high tide that will
never come.
