The GOP's Impossible
Dream:
Republicans Can't
Win Without Latino
Support in Millennial
Era
By Michael Hais
Note: This essay is the
first in a new series
that I will be
contributing to NDN. The
essays will examine
important and
interesting data from
available public surveys
and surveys commissioned
by NDN and its
affiliates. Themes and
analysis will include
attitudes toward race
and ethnicity, the
economy, foreign affairs
and the Millennial
Generation, but will not
be limited to those
topics.
In a recent posting on
his fivethirtyeight.com
Web site, Nate Silver
raised the possibility
that the Republican
Party could more
effectively compete in
the 2012 and 2016
elections by turning its
back on Hispanics and
attempting to maximize
the support of white
voters in enough 2008
Midwestern and Southern
blue states to flip them
red. This would involve
positioning the GOP as
the non-Latino party by
"pursuing an
anti-immigrant,
anti-NAFTA, 'American
First' sort of
platform.'" The
Republican Party rode
similar exclusionary
strategies to dominance
of U.S. politics during
most of the past four
decades.
But America has entered
a new era. Propelled by
the election of its
first African-American
president, an
increasingly non-white
and more heavily Latino
population, and the
emergence of a new,
significantly more
tolerant generation, the
Millennials, America is
not the same country,
demographically and
attitudinally, that it
was in the 1960s or even
the 1990s. These changes
have altered the
electoral environment
and lessened the
usefulness of divisive
strategies that were
once effective, but may
no longer be so.
Superficially, a
non-Latino strategy
might seem more
plausible than anything
else the GOP has
attempted since the
election of Barack
Obama. After offering
significant support to
George W. Bush in 2000
and 2004, Hispanics have
recently become a
solidly Democratic
group. Republicans may
have little to lose in
not courting them in the
next election or two.
Nationally, Hispanics
voted for Barack Obama
over John McCain by more
than 2:1 (67% vs. 31%).
They supported
Democratic House
candidates last year by
an even greater margin
(68% vs. 29%). Pew
surveys indicate that
four times as many
Hispanics identify as
Democrats than
Republicans (62% vs.
15%).
Adopting a non-Hispanic
strategy would certainly
be compatible with
strategies the GOP has
been utilizing for
decades. From the
"Southern strategy" of
Richard Nixon and Kevin
Phillips in the late
1960s, through the
"wedge issues" used by
Lee Atwater in the
1980s, to Karl Rove's
"base politics" in this
decade, the Republicans
effectively took
advantage of white
middle and working class
fears of the "other" --
African-Americans, gays,
feminists -- who could
be positioned as being
outside the American
mainstream. Applying
this approach to Latinos
would only be doing what
came naturally for the
GOP during the past 40
years.
But, while ethnically
exclusionary strategies
may offer the
possibility of
short-term relief, they
do little to resolve the
deep difficulties now
facing the Republican
Party. The ethnic
composition of the
United States is far
different now than it
was in the 1960s when
the GOP began to
separate white
southerners (and
like-minded white
working class voters in
other regions) from
their long attachment to
the Democratic Party.
Four decades ago, 90
percent of Americans
were white, and
virtually all of the
remainder were
African-American.
Hispanics were a
negligible factor within
the population and the
electorate. Since then,
the percentage of
non-Hispanic whites in
America has fallen to
two-thirds. Hispanics
now comprise about 15
percent of the
population and just
under 10 percent of the
electorate. Moreover,
Hispanics are a
relatively young
demographic. Even if no
additional Latinos
migrate to the United
States, their importance
will continue to
increase as older whites
pass from the scene.
It is this rise in the
Hispanic population that
prompted Silver to offer
his suggested non-Latino
strategy to the
Republicans in the first
place. But Silver's
plan, which he
facetiously calls
"Operation Gringo,"
would require the GOP to
pull off a rare
political balancing act
or "thread the needle"
to use his term. In
order to compensate for
expected losses in the
increasingly Latino
Southwestern states of
Colorado, Nevada, New
Mexico and, without John
McCain on their ticket,
Arizona, Republicans
would have to win states
like Pennsylvania and
Michigan that they have
not carried in decades.
They would have to do
this while not, at the
same time, losing
Florida and possibly
Texas with their own
large Hispanic
electorates.
Moreover, while it is
true that Hispanics are
not distributed evenly
across the country,
Silver concedes "there
are Hispanics everywhere
now." Latinos were
decisive in Obama's wins
in closely divided
"gringo territories"
such as Indiana, North
Carolina, and Nebraska's
second congressional
district and the growth
rate of Hispanics is
greatest in
"nontraditional" areas
like the South and
Prairie states. This
means that "America
first" campaigning may
ultimately have the
effect of hurting
Republicans even in some
of the "white" states
where it was intended to
help.
However, the biggest
barrier in running
against Hispanics is
that American attitudes
on ethnicity have
changed significantly
over the past four
decades. A new Pew
survey indicates that
Americans have become
less hostile toward
immigrants and more
positive about policies
designed to incorporate
immigrants, even
undocumented immigrants,
into American society.
The number favoring a
policy that would allow
illegal immigrants
(Pew's term) currently
in the country to gain
citizenship if they pass
background checks, pay
fines and have jobs has
increased from 58
percent to 63 percent
since 2007. While 73
percent do agree that
America should restrict
and control people
coming to live in here
more than we do now,
that number is down from
80 percent in 2002 and
82 percent in 1994.
Finally, support for
free trade agreements
like NAFTA has risen
from 34 percent in 2003
and 40 percent in 2007
to 44 percent now.
The Pew findings are
confirmed by the
findings of a survey
recently released by
Pete Brodnitz of the
Benenson Strategy Group.
That study indicated
that, across party
lines, virtually all
Americans (86%) favor
the passage by Congress
of comprehensive
immigration reform when
they are given full
details of that plan.
Leading the way in these
increasingly tolerant
attitudes is the
Millennial Generation
(Americans born
1982-2003). Only a third
of Millennials (35% vs.
55% for older
generations) believe
that the growing number
of immigrants threatens
traditional American
values. Just 58 percent
of Millennials (compared
with 77% of older
generations) agrees that
the United States should
increase restrictions on
those coming to live in
America. A large
majority of Millennials
(71% in contrast to 62%
of older Americans)
favors a pathway to
citizenship for
undocumented immigrants.
And, 61-percent of
Millennials favor free
trade agreements such as
NAFTA in contrast to
just 40 percent of older
generations.
To date America has only
seen the tip of the
Millennial iceberg. In
2008, just 41 percent of
them were eligible to
vote and they comprised
only 17 percent of the
electorate. By 2012,
more than 60 percent of
Millennials will be of
voting age and they will
be a quarter of the
electorate. In 2020,
when the youngest
Millennials will be able
to vote, they will make
up more than a third of
the electorate. Over the
next decade, this will
make the ethnically
tolerant attitudes of
the Millennial
Generation the rule
rather than the
exception in American
politics.
At this early point in
the Millennial era,
Republicans remain most
open to the intolerance
and immigrant bashing of
ethnically exclusionary
strategies. Pew
indicates the number of
Democrats and
independents who favor a
pathway to citizenship
for undocumented
immigrants is up 11
points and 3 points
respectively since 2007.
By contrast, the number
of Republicans who favor
that policy is down by
six points. In the end,
a non-Hispanic approach
by Republicans would
amount to a continuation
of Karl Rove's base
strategy. As the
Republican base
continues to diminish in
the Millennial Era, that
strategy will be a
recipe for disaster for
the GOP, certainly in
the long term, and very
likely in the short run
as well.
