As America enters a new era
driven by the civic
political orientation of the
Millennial Generation and
minorities, each party must
decide the type of
ideological and demographic
coalition that will give it
the best shot at future
success. This week's
elections provided some
clear clues to both
Democrats and Republicans on
which strategic direction to
take. Whether either
party's national leadership
has the political
perspicacity to follow that
path to success in the 2010
off-year elections and
beyond, however, is far
less clear.
The special election in
upstate New York's 23rd
Congressional District
seemed to shine the
brightest light on where the
American electorate is
headed. The state's local
Republican Party leadership,
mindful of Barack Obama's
52% majority in this once
heavily Republican district,
nominated a moderate, (some
would later say liberal)
candidate, Dede Scozzafava.
Her political profile was
similar to two of the most
successful Republicans in
New York history, Governor
Nelson Rockefeller and
Senator Jacob Javits, both
of whom served in America's
last civic era more than a
half century ago. But the
GOP base outside of New
York's "North Country" had
long since moved past these
faded images from the 1960s
and was more interested in
supporting a candidate whose
conservative fiscal policies
matched his attitudes on
social issues such as gay
marriage and abortion.
Taking advantage of the
presence of a separate
ballot line, national
Republicans led by Sarah
Palin and Rush Limbaugh,
rallied behind the candidacy
of Conservative Party
candidate, Doug Hoffman,
whose ideas fit their
conception of the ideology
that would unite and excite
the GOP base. But even in a
Congressional district that
hadn't elected a Democrat to
Congress since the formation
of the Republican Party that
approach failed to generate
a victory for Hoffman, who
got only 46% of the vote.
Even after dropping out and
endorsing the Democrat,
Scozzafava got 5% of the
vote from some very loyal
Republicans, giving Owens a
3% margin of victory, very
similar to Obama's margin in
the district in 2008. While
it would be wrong to
extrapolate these results
from such a unique district
to the American electorate
as a whole, the outcome does
suggest that a strident and
consistently conservative
ideological approach will
not be the way for
Republicans to regain
majority status anytime
soon.
At the same time that they
were losing in New York,
Republicans were successful
in both the New Jersey and
Virginia gubernatorial
elections. By running
positive campaigns focused
on job creation and lower
taxes, while downplaying
social issues, both Robert
McDonnell in Virginia and
Chris Christie in New
Jersey, were able to stop a
recent streak of Democratic
victories in those states.
All of this, as one of the
smartest political
journalists in DC, Ron
Brownstein has pointed out,
is reminiscent of the appeal
and turmoil that Ross
Perot's 1992 candidacy for
President brought to
American politics.
There is indeed much that is
similar in the current
Republican mantra against
Democratic spending and
Perot's message. Perot's
appeal was based on his own
"odd man out" persona and a
megalomaniacal focus on the
nation's budget deficit.
But Republicans tend to
forget that Perot supporters
were relentlessly secular.
They rejected both the
social agenda of the
Republican Party and the big
government tendencies of the
Democrats. This makes any
attempt by the GOP to follow
the approach they used in
upstate New York of melding
government restrictions on
social behavior and small
government economic
conservatism both
ideologically inconsistent
and politically difficult.
Others have suggested that
the correct path to
Republican recovery lies in
marrying libertarian notions
of limited government with
that philosophy's social
liberalism. Certainly the
close votes on gay marriage
in Maine and Washington, not
to mention the vote to
legalize marijuana by the
citizens of Breckenridge,
Colorado, suggests there is
at least as much political
potential in advocating
tolerance on social issues
as there is in hewing to
conservative doctrine.
Writing in this month's
edition of
Fast Company,
Silicon Valley's ideological
bible, Carlos Watson, a high
tech and media entrepreneur,
argued the next election
would provide the moment to
build a lasting coalition of
fiscal conservatives and
social liberals. While this
week's special elections
didn't offer the voter's
such a choice, the
candidacies for the
California Republican
gubernatorial nomination of
both Meg Whitman, former CEO
of eBay and Steve Poizner,
another former Silicon
Valley entrepreneur who made
his fortune monetizing GPS
technology, may well provide
a testing ground for this
theory next year.
However, history and current
polling data does not
suggest this approach is
likely to be any more
successful for the
Republican party than
doubling down on
conservatism was in New
York's 23rd Congressional
District. The most recent
WSJ/NBC poll by Democrat
Peter Hart and Republican
Bill McInturff suggested
that the American public
favors a quite different
approach. A large majority
(63%) of the electorate said
the government had either
"done the right amount of
intervention [in the
economy] or needed to do
more." Even 42% of
non-aligned or loosely
aligned voters in the middle
of the electorate agreed
with this statement. In
other words, while
Republicans stick to Reagan
era ideas on the size and
scope of government, the
electorate is actually more
interested in voting for
candidates who will support
a larger role for
government in restoring
the health of the U.S.
economy.
Democrats, instead of
running away from President
Obama, should follow his
lead in offering even more
positive ways that
government can protect
middle class Americans from
the worst excesses of the
free market. That may be
the opposite of
Libertarianism, but it's
just what the public wants.
Despite yesterday's
results, conservatives seem
intent on launching an
intense civil war for the
hearts and minds of the
Republican Party in a series
of high profile primaries
next year. Undeterred by the
results from New York's 23rd
Congressional district, or
for that matter the election
to Congress of California's
Democratic Lieutenant
Governor John Garamendi in a
district that only recently
become blue, the GOP seems
only too willing to form
the type of circular firing
squads that used to
characterize the Democrats
when Ronald Reagan dominated
U.S. politics two decades
ago. Republican leaders
should instead follow
the more likely road to
victory demonstrated by the
pragmatic and practical
politics of Virginia's Bob
McDonnell. Only that type
of candidacy, grounded in
the new realities of the
electorate, can provide a
real opportunity for that
party's recovery from its
current, historically low
levels of support among
American voters.
The public's new found
willingness to use
government as an economic
force is the direct result
of both the arrival of the
Millennial Generation and
the increased representation
of minorities in the
American electorate.
Together these forces are
demographically destined to
become a larger and larger
part of the population,
providing Democrats a wind
at their backs for decades--
if they will only listen to
the voters and read the
lessons of this week's
special elections
correctly.
