Like the constant buzz of
the vuvuzelas during the
World Cup, leading members
of the inside-the-Beltway
punditry like
Chris Cilliza and
Chuck Todd have
generated an ever louder
chorus of warnings recently
that "angry" independent
voters will determine the
outcome of the 2010 midterm
elections and, in so doing,
threaten the Democratic
Party's current
congressional majorities.
Actually, however, it is not
what independent-or even
Republican-voters do that
will determine what happens
in this November's
elections. It is what
Democrats do, or perhaps not
do, that will be decisive.
This is true for two
reasons. First, a
significantly greater number
of voters now identify with
or lean to the Democratic
Party than to the GOP.
Second, only a relatively
small number of politically
uninvolved and disinterested
voters are independents that
are completely unattached to
either of the parties. As a
result, the big election
story in 2010 will be the
extent to which the large
plurality of Americans who
call themselves Democrats
shows up at the polls this
fall, and not the voting
preferences of unaffiliated
independents or Republicans.
This is a quite different
situation from 1994, the
last time there was a
so-called midterm "wave"
election in which the GOP
wrested control of Congress
from the Democratic Party.
That year, the two parties
were dead even in party ID
at 44% each. A year later,
the Republicans held a
narrow
three-point lead over
the Democrats (46% vs. 43%).
But, America is a different
country now than it was in
the mid-1990s, with a far
more ethnically diverse
electorate and a new,
strongly Democratic
generation, the Millennials
(born 1982-2003), coming of
age. These emerging groups
comprise the core of a new,
potentially long-lasting
majority Democratic
coalition.
This year, in sharp contrast
to 1994, the Democratic
Party holds a party
identification advantage
over the Republicans. In a
June national survey
conducted for NDN by highly
regarded market research
firm, Frank N. Magid
Associates, 47% of voting
age Americans identified
with or leaned to the
Democratic Party, well above
the 33% who identified with
or leaned to the Republican
Party and the 19% who
claimed to be unaffiliated
independents. Even among
registered voters the
Democratic advantage over
the GOP was 11 percentage
points (47% vs. 36% with
unaffiliated independents
dropping to 17%). These
numbers were replicated in
an early July Pew survey
showing the Democrats with a
49% to 42% party ID lead
over the Republicans among
registered voters.
As is the case in virtually
every U.S. election, almost
all of those who identify
with or lean to a party plan
to vote for the candidates
of that party this coming
November. In the NDN poll,
about 95% of both Democratic
and Republican identifiers
who have made a choice say
they expect to vote this
fall for the congressional
candidate of the party with
which they identify.
Meanwhile, among the
presumably decisive
independents, almost
two-thirds (61%) are as yet
undecided in the race for
Congress. The remainder is
split almost evenly between
the two parties, with 21%
preferring the Republicans
and 18% the Democrats.
The solid Democratic
advantage in party ID,
coupled with the strong
support given by Democratic
identifiers to the party's
candidates, and the closely
divided independent vote,
translates into a clear lead
for the Democrats over the
Republicans among all
Americans on the generic
congressional ballot in the
NDN survey (35% for the
Democrats vs. 29% for the
GOP with 34% undecided and
8% favoring another party or
candidate).
There is, however, a large
fly in the Democratic
ointment. At least at this
point, Democratic
identifiers are
significantly less likely to
be registered to vote than
are Republicans (90% vs.
84%). Democrats are also
substantially less likely
than Republicans to say they
are certain to vote in
November (76% vs. 67%).
These concerns are
particularly acute among
Latinos and Millennials,
both of which are key
components of the Democratic
coalition. As a result of
these disparities, the
Democratic lead over the GOP
on the generic ballot drops
to three points among
registered voters (35% vs.
32%), and to a statistical
tie of just two points among
those who say they are
certain to vote this fall
(37% vs. 35%).
What must the Democratic
Party do to overcome these
barriers? One thing is to
organize. The decision of
the Democratic National
Committee to
spend $50 million in
2010 to increase the
registration and turnout of
"first time voters"
(meaning, primarily,
Millennials,
African-Americans, Latinos,
and single women) is a key
step in constructing and
strengthening the 21st
century Democratic coalition
for this year and the
decades ahead.
But Democrats also need to
resist advice to turn to the
right as some pundits
suggest. Conservative
columnist, George Will, is
certainly correct in noting
that the Democratic
disadvantage this year in
voter enthusiasm and
commitment could hurt the
party in November. But his
assertion that the lack of
enthusiasm among Democratic
voters stems from their
party's being "at odds with
an increasingly center-right
country," is
challenged by recent
poll results.
The NDN survey portrays a
country that is anything but
center-right. A solid
majority of Americans prefer
a government that actively
tries to solve the problems
facing society and the
economy (54%), rather than a
government that stays out of
society and the economy to
the greatest extent possible
(31%). Three-quarters of
Democrats (76%), and just
over half of independents
(52%), favor an activist
government, while 60% of
Republicans want a laissez
faire approach.
Similarly, a clear plurality
of the electorate (49%)
wants government to ensure
that all Americans have at
least a basic standard of
living and level of income,
even if it increases
government spending. Only
34% supported the
alternative approach of
letting each person get
along economically on their
own, even if that means some
people have a lot more than
others. A solid majority of
Democrats (69%), and half of
independents, opt for
governmental policies aimed
at increasing economic
equality, something that is
opposed by two-thirds (65%)
of Republicans.
Nothing would be more
confusing and dispiriting
for Democratic voters than
for the Democratic Party to
turn away from the political
and economic approach they
strongly favor, and which
has been the hallmark of the
party's success and identity
since the presidency of
Franklin D. Roosevelt.
Generating enthusiasm for
Democratic candidates in the
2010 midterm election
requires highlighting, not
downplaying or running away
from, the striking
legislative accomplishments
of the Democratic
congressional majority
during the first two years
of the Obama administration.
Democrats would also be well
advised not to base their
campaign on pursuing
independent voters, angry or
otherwise. For one thing,
the much-vaunted
independents are far less
likely to be registered
(72%) and certain to vote
(52%) than are either
Republican or Democratic
identifiers. While aiming at
unaffiliated and uninvolved
voters may be a good idea
for a party that has fewer,
or even the same number, of
identifiers as its opponent,
it is not the best strategy
for a party that holds a
clear party identification
lead within the electorate.
Doing everything that it can
to mobilize its own
supporters makes far more
sense, and is likely to be
far more effective. In the
end, what happens to the
Democratic Party in 2010 and
beyond is in its own hands,
and will be determined
primarily by the votes of
those who identify with it,
rather than being in the
hands of the media or the
other side of the political
aisle.
