As Congress
returns from its holiday vacation, it and
President Barack Obama need to address a
number of challenges facing the country from
health care reform to jobs and what strategy
to pursue in Afghanistan. How the
Democratic leadership deals with these
issues may well determine the future loyalty
of an entire generation of new voters, and
with it the future of the Democratic Party.
A recent study
by two economists, Paola Giuliano and
Antonio Spilembergo, entitled "Growing
Up in a Recession," suggests
that experiencing an economic recession
during the impressionable ages of 18-25 can
have lifelong effects on a person's attitude
toward government and its role in the
economy. The Democratic Party's most
enthusiastic and loyal new constituency,
Millennials (born 1982- 2003), have had
their young lives thoroughly disrupted by
the current economic downturn. With their
level of unemployment exceeding 25%, what is
for other generations a Great Recession is
for Millennials their very own Great
Depression. Such an experience is likely,
according to the new study, to increase
Millennial support for policies that favor
government redistribution of income and
other liberal economic ideas.
However,
Giuliano and Spilembergo also demonstrate
that this same experience often makes young
people less trusting of government
institutions. Conservative columnist Ross
Douthat
suggested recently that the
difference between the Democratic New Deal
loyalties of the GI Generation that came of
age during the Great Depression and the
greater Republican orientation of Generation
X that experienced Jimmy Carter's
stagflation economy in the 1970s is the
degree to which government dealt effectively
with the economic crisis of their youth.
"When liberal interventions seem to be
effective, a downturn can help midwife an
enduring Democratic majority. But if they
don't seem to be working - or worse, if they
seem to be working for insiders and favored
constituencies, rather than for the common
man - then suspicion of state power can
trump disillusionment with free markets."
This raises
the stakes for what Congress does in the
next six months to new heights. Millennials,
more than one-third of whom lack health
insurance, will be watching closely to see
if their needs are addressed in the final
version of health care reform, something
Millennials support to a far greater extent
than any other generation. Of course,
failure to pass meaningful reform may well
sound a death knell for the emerging
Democratic majority that the Obama campaign
created last year.
But
Millennials care even more about
jobs and the health of the economy.
With record unemployment among members of
this generation, any jobs package Congress
puts forward must specifically meet the
concerns and needs of Millennials. In
particular, Congress must deal with the high
cost of education (something Millennials
still see as the ticket to future economic
success), the lack of job opportunities even
at the intern level for those just entering
the work force, and the lack of access to
fundamental job skills training that
community colleges can provide to those
ready to go to work soon.
While the
Democratic leadership often believes that
today's youth thinks about issues of war and
peace in the same reflexive way that young
Baby Boomers did four decades ago,
Millennials are more likely to want to
understand the mission and strategy for
success in Afghanistan before making up
their mind on whether or not to support a
deepening American involvement in that
conflict. With Millennials providing the
overwhelming majority of front line troops,
however Congress chooses to pay for that
campaign, it must ensure that those who do
go to fight are better equipped than the
military force George W. Bush initially sent
to Iraq.
The
effectiveness of any legislation Congress
adopts over the next six months will not be
known for years, but the way Congressional
Democrats approach their policy decisions
will be clear enough to Millennials. The
stakes are large and will have long-reaching
impact. If the decisions are made by cutting
deals with special interest groups, none of
which represent this generation and its
financial concerns, or by compromising
Millennial principles of equity and social
justice, members of the generation are
likely to sit out the 2010 midterm elections
and wait for their favorite messenger,
Barack Obama, to return to the ballot in
2012 before making their future preferences
known. If that happens, the results in the
gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New
Jersey last month will only be a prelude for
a much bigger
Democratic disaster next November.
If, instead, Democratic leaders take off
their generational blinders and recognize
that the base of their party is now made up
of an overlapping core of Millennials,
minorities, and women and respond
accordingly, they will help to solidify the
Democratic loyalties of America's largest
generation for decades to come.
