How to Lose a Generation
If the Republican Party
thinks it has problems
now, just wait. The
party's incredibly poor
performance among young
voters in the 2008
election raises
questions about the
long-term
competitiveness of the
GOP.
The "millennials" — the
generation of Americans
born between 1982 and
2003 — now identify as
Democrats by a ratio of
2 to 1. They are the
first in four
generations to contain
more self-perceived
liberals than
conservatives.
And a recent Daily Kos
tracking poll should
send shudders down the
spine of any Republican
who understands how
powerful a voting bloc
this generation could
become over the next
decade.
Only 9% of millennials
polled expressed a
favorable opinion of the
Republican Party. Only
7% were positive about
the GOP's congressional
leaders. By contrast,
65% of millennials had a
favorable opinion of the
Democratic Party, and a
majority also approved
of congressional
Democrats.
Though many people
question the political
sophistication of the
millennials, they have
been instilled with
egalitarian and
participatory values by
their parents since
birth.
This child-rearing
produced a generation
that was wide open to
the personal appeal and
message of Barack Obama
and his party. Moving
forward, the initial
preference of
millennials for
President Obama and the
Democrats will remain in
place for a lifetime
unless Republicans can
quickly adapt their
message and find a
messenger who can speak
to this powerful new
force in American
politics.
Only 41% of all
millennials were
eligible to vote in
2008, yet their
overwhelming support for
Obama transformed his
win from what would have
been a squeaker into a
solid victory. Obama's
popular-vote margin over
John McCain was about
9.5 million nationally;
millennials accounted
for nearly 7.6 million
of those votes.
In the 2010 off-year
election, half of
millennials will be
eligible to vote,
representing about a
fifth of the overall
electorate. By 2012, 60%
will be eligible to
vote, and they could
make up about a quarter
of the American
electorate when Obama
runs for reelection. By
2020, when virtually all
millennials will be over
18, they will represent
36% of the electorate
and will completely
dominate elections and
the political agenda of
America.
And it seems likely that
this civic generation,
like its "Greatest
Generation"
great-grandparents, will
vote in big numbers.
Turnout among voters
under 30 has been rising
steadily since
millennials began to
replace the alienated
and more cynical
Gen-Xers in this age
group. From a low of 37%
in 1996, turnout
increased to 53% of all
eligible millennials,
and 59% in the key
battleground states in
2008.
Their unity of opinion
and their numbers will
make millennials'
preferences for economic
activism, a
non-intrusive approach
to social issues by
government at any level
and a multilateral
interventionism by
America in foreign
affairs the policy paths
to political success
during the next decade.
It is simply
inconceivable that the
Republican Party can
craft a winning strategy
between now and then
that doesn't accommodate
these ideas.
But so far, Republicans
appear to be tone-deaf
on the issues that
millennials care about.
Millennials have been
reared with a desire to
serve their community,
and the Edward M.
Kennedy Serve America
Act provides them an
opportunity to do just
that, while at the same
time dealing with their
single biggest financial
worry — the high cost of
a college education.
Unfortunately, all but
25 House Republicans
voted against the bill,
despite its
co-sponsorship by Sen.
Orrin Hatch (R-Utah).
Millennials also are
experiencing higher
levels of unemployment
than any other
generation. They expect
the federal government
to take an active role
in fixing that problem
and support
redistributing income if
necessary. But the
almost-unanimous
Republican opposition to
the "recovery" act
helped convince
millennials that only
one party actually
understood their
problems and was
prepared to act in
accordance with their
beliefs.
Polls consistently show
millennials are more
committed to
environmental protection
than any generation in
American history,
willing to sacrifice
economic growth or
endure higher prices in
order to save the
planet. Given the
millennials'
overwhelming concern
with the environment,
House Minority Leader
John Boehner's comments
recently that carbon
dioxide isn't a real
threat because "we all
breathe it out" and,
besides, "cows give out
a lot of gas too," went
beyond inanity into the
realm of political
suicide.
The only tentative
Republican gesture to
millennial power to date
is the GOP's sudden
fascination with a new
social network platform,
Twitter. By choosing
Twitter — with its
limitations on content —
to connect to
millennials, Republicans
are actually
demonstrating how little
they know about this
generation's commitment
to engaging in the
content-rich challenges
of rebuilding the
nation's civic
institutions and
national unification.
Republicans will need to
find a new message and
much better messengers
than their last
presidential ticket or
their current
congressional leaders if
they want to truly
connect with today's
young voters. Failure to
do so will leave
Republicans, to
paraphrase Abraham
Lincoln, locked in the
dogmas of their quiet
past, unable to think
and therefore act anew.
